Anurag Jain's Blog
Sunday, May 29, 2005

Hubbert's Peak: This is not a test run!

Some days back, I mentioned about the energy crisis. Time to write about it again.

The point of interest leading to both (last and this) posts is the Peak of Oil Production. There's a global and a regional Peak of Oil production, a limit beyond which the oil production will inevitably decline. Assuming the bell curve of oil production, the amount of time it took to reach the peak would also be the amount of time after the Peak time before which we run out of oil production. The phenomenon of Peak Oil Production was first noticed and estimated by US geoscientist Dr. M. King Hubbert, and hence the name Hubbert's Peak. (There was an article in Times of India recently explaining what it is.)

Now some factoids. Mainly taken from Dr Colin Campbell's year 2000 lecture. In 2000, oil industry expert Dr Colin Campbell lectured in Germany on the peak of world oil production. (Watch this very informative 1-hour lecture by Dr Colin Campbell on Peak Oil Production. Text version available here.)

# Some general Hydrocarbon stats:
. Conventional oil peaks around 2005
. All hydrocarbons around 2010
. Gas, less depleted than oil, peaks around 2020
. Gas liquids peak a little after gas, as extraction rates increase
. The decline after peak is about 3% a year

# World Oil Stats:
Produced: 822 Gb ~46% of Ultimate
Reserves: 827 Gb
Discovered: 1637 ~91% of Ultimate
Yet to find: 151
Yet to produce: 978
Ultimate: 1800
Production Rate: 22 Gb/year (rising)
Depletion Rate: 2.2% /year
Discovery Rate: 6 Gb/year (falling)
Discovery peaked in 1965. Production peaked in 2005. Time lag: 40 years. Mid-point year: 2005. Ulitmate 2050: 1800 Gb. To-date 1999: 822Gb


# USA
Discovery peaked in 1930
Production peaked in 1972
Time lag: 42 years
Mid-point year: 1970
Ulitmate 2050: 190 Gb
To-date 1999: 165Gb


#Middle-East


Dr Campbell also accuses Oil corporates of not playing it fair and he says it would be better to make a proper analysis of the true position and inform people (No one blames the government for an earthquake. So they would n't blame it for an oil crisis):
# British Petroleum certainly wins the prize for the most oblique reference to depletion when it changes its logo to a sunflower and says that BP stands for Beyond Petroleum. But its executives sit on the board of Goldman Sachs, the bankers. They should accordingly know what BP actually thinks behind the lace curtains of corporate make-believe. What do the bankers say? "The rig count over the last 12 years has reached bottom. This is not because of low oil price. The oil companies are not going to keep rigs employed to drill dry holes. They know it but are unable and unwilling to admit it. The great merger mania is nothing more than a scaling down of a dying industry in recognition of the fact that 90% of global conventional oil has already been found." - Goldmann Sachs, August 1999
# Shell says it in other words "There was a time when oil and gas reserves seemed endless..." - November 1999 Advertisement

Dr Campbell finishes his lecture with: "If you don't deal with reality, reality will deal with you".

How ominous!!

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