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Sunday, May 29, 2005
Hubbert's Peak: This is not a test run!
Some days back, I mentioned about the energy crisis. Time to write about it again. The point of interest leading to both (last and this) posts is the Peak of Oil Production. There's a global and a regional Peak of Oil production, a limit beyond which the oil production will inevitably decline. Assuming the bell curve of oil production, the amount of time it took to reach the peak would also be the amount of time after the Peak time before which we run out of oil production. The phenomenon of Peak Oil Production was first noticed and estimated by US geoscientist Dr. M. King Hubbert, and hence the name Hubbert's Peak. (There was an article in Times of India recently explaining what it is.) Now some factoids. Mainly taken from Dr Colin Campbell's year 2000 lecture. In 2000, oil industry expert Dr Colin Campbell lectured in Germany on the peak of world oil production. (Watch this very informative 1-hour lecture by Dr Colin Campbell on Peak Oil Production. Text version available here.) # Some general Hydrocarbon stats: . Conventional oil peaks around 2005 . All hydrocarbons around 2010 . Gas, less depleted than oil, peaks around 2020 . Gas liquids peak a little after gas, as extraction rates increase . The decline after peak is about 3% a year # World Oil Stats: Produced: 822 Gb ~46% of Ultimate Reserves: 827 Gb Discovered: 1637 ~91% of Ultimate Yet to find: 151 Yet to produce: 978 Ultimate: 1800 Production Rate: 22 Gb/year (rising) Depletion Rate: 2.2% /year Discovery Rate: 6 Gb/year (falling) Discovery peaked in 1965. Production peaked in 2005. Time lag: 40 years. Mid-point year: 2005. Ulitmate 2050: 1800 Gb. To-date 1999: 822Gb
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