A Few Events

1. IMR Round Table on "Supply Chain Management"
IIMB Management Review (IMR) Round Table on "Supply Chain Management” on Tuesday 17, August 2004 at CPP Seminar Room No.2 between 1.30 pm to 4.30 pm.

2. Talk by Prof. Abhay Abhyankar

"I am happy to invite you for a talk by Prof. Abhay Abhyankar of University of Durham on "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability" on Friday, August 13, 2004 at 3.00 p.m. The venue is Committee Room. Please make a note of it in your calendar.

With regards,
M S Narasimhan

Exchange Rates and Fundamentals:
Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability

Abhay Abhyankaraa, Lucio Sarnobb and Giorgio Valentebc
aUniversity of Durham
bUniversity of Warwick
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Abstract

A major puzzle in international finance is the well-documented inability of models based on monetary fundamentals to produce better out-of-sample forecasts of the nominal exchange rate than a naive random walk. While this literature has generally employed statistical measures of forecast accuracy, we investigate whether there is any economic value to the predictive power of monetary fundamentals for the exchange rate. We find that, in the context of a simple asset allocation problem, the economic value of exchange rate forecasts from a fundamentals model can be substantially greater than the economic value of random walk forecasts across a range of horizons.

JEL classification: F31; F37.
Keywords: foreign exchange; monetary fundamentals; predictability; parameter uncertainty; asset allocation."

3. Int'l Conf On "Globalization & Competitiveness"
Third International conference on "Globalization & Competitiveness" is being organized at IIT Kharagpur during 11th to 13th January 2005. Vinod Gupta School of Management and Department of HSS of IIT Kharagpur and Academy of International Business (India Chapter) are jointly organizing this conference. Paper format and submission details are also available at http://www.iitkgp.ernet.in/aibconf


4. CRY Quiz

"Dear Friends,

Child Relief and You and its volunteer group, Friends of CRY have been organising FACT (Free a Child Today), a general knowledge quiz, open to corporates, since 1998. The proceeds from the quiz go towards education of underprivileged children in CRY projects across the country. Last year FACT enabled CRY to raise funds equivalent to supporting the education of more than 1800 children.

FACT this year takes place across Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Calcutta, Chennai and Hyderabad. Like last year, Derek O' Brien is the quiz master this year. Be prepared to send your team to the National Finals at Delhi. And here is a bit of trivia - FACT was born in Bangalore.

To participate:
  Keep yourself and your cheerleaders free on Sept 5th in Bangalore
  The team size is the same as last year i.e. 2 per team, AND you can send in as many teams as you like.
  Investment- Rs 8000/- per team (equivalent to funding the education of 10 children for 1 year)
  For first timers- this is a trivia quiz
  More details at 25484952/ 25488574/ cp.blr AT crymail.org

More details enclosed in the participation form. Do remember, you would be making a statement by just participating in this quiz. We, of course, promise to give you a hard time once you get there.
All the best!!
Warm regards"

Sridevi Raghavan
CRY"