Anurag Jain's Blog on Bangalore Events, Travel, IIM Bangalore, IIM, IIMB, Management

Friday, May 14, 2004

Posted 3:52 PM by Anurag

Some musings on Indian Elections 2004

When Mayawati said: "A majboor (helpless) government is better than a majboot (strong)", she meant that a coalition government is tied up with the concerns of many different parties, a fact that makes sure the actions leading to best interests of people prevail. The slogan seems to have come (again) true with Indian elections 2004 leading to a Congress-led coalition government. I have some thoughts on the Elections 2004:

1) In the run-up to the general elections 2004, I always rooted for the Congress, but never really thought that they would come to power. Now that they have made the cut, its time to revisit the election campaign trial time and ponder over how wrong the media and incumbents can be.

For all their analytical and technological capabilities, no newspaper, no magazine, no psephologist, no-body was able to predict the results that have turned out. Which raises serious questions about such prediciton exercises which include opinion polls, exit polls, self-serving statements by politicians. All popular media predicted a shoo-in victory for BJP-led NDA. And when after the first two phases (out of four) of elections, the indications start to go in favour of the Congress, the stock markets took a nose-dive. Spoon-fed by the India Shining campaign and the feel-good factor, the whole urban population was apparently high on NDA making it back to the seat of power. And the media had been telling them the same thing that it indeed would happen like that. Hence, when the markets sensed that it instead would not be so, they tumbled. When we combine this fact with the final results where the Congress swept the elections (and BJP took a drubbing, much to the surprise of its spin-doctors such as Pramod Mahajan), it only goes on to show just how stark the difference is between the urban middle class' and rest of India's (read, the masses) expectations and aspirations.

(Update @ 7pm: Found a very similar sounding article on the Hindu)

The story at the Centre has an echo in IT-driven, suave-governments-led southern states Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, and vice versa. AP's Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu (TDP, an NDA ally) and Karnataka's Chief Minister S M Krishna (Congress) both led their states on IT-path, but were shown the door by the voters. The lesson being that you can feel as good as you might want to believe about your governance, but you just can not sacrifice the masses' aspirations and issues at the altar of making a much smaller (in number, but economically much bigger) urban electorate feel good.

Amongst all this, the biggest surprise for me is that even in Mumbai and Delhi, where India Shining was supposed to have been highly visible, and been making a wave on which BJP witch-doctors were riding, BJP has been trounced like anything. That sure is some news. So, apparently even though urban voters are the ones who benefitted the most from Vajpayee govt's pro-economic reforms stand, even they didn't help BJP! The reason for this could be twofold:
a) Within metros, this so called urban-elite class that forms public opinion through mass media (such as the Tabloid of India) is actually quite small. There's a sizeable number of poor people in metros too, who wouldn't be affected by any amount of India Shining factor, if it doesn't affect them in a positive way.
b) Even amongst this small urban-elite class, how many do actually vote! Its ironical that the section of people who are most vocal in mass media - the ones with much higher access to opportunities to voice their opinion round the year (not just at election time), the ones who have gained most from reforms and IT-led Shining India - are also the ones who are most irresponsbile towards their franchise duty. Well, the results serve them right. Somebody had to recieve their comeuppance for being so blinded to the obvious grim reality of the rest of the India, and in this case it is the urban elite and the mass media.

2) Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin issue.
I dont care two hoots about that. I would rather see her as Prime Minister. I have always appreciated her for the way she has conducted party affairs in the last 4-5 years: cleansing the party, sanitising the rank and file, behaving in almost a non-politician way which is to say that she didn't resort to all nasty tricks of the trade while being in the opposition. Her kids are from new generation and they talk the same language: no hanky-panky, no monkey business, just plain, straight, serious business. Neither Sonia, nor Varun (or Priyanka) have ever used their lineage for political gains. (Its a different issue that her opponents didn't want Sonia to become the Congress President just because she was from the Gandhi family. But then that speaks more about Congress situation at that time and not about her per se.).

I have been recieving SMS' like:
"History repeats itself - India once again ruled by foreigner. Greatest tragedy - 1 billion people couldn't find an Indian to become PM. Shame on us. Jai Italy - Vande Mata Rome."

To such propangandists, my answer is that first of all *think* before you send any such messages. *Apply* your brains before you become a part of the herd. Why I am against such messages and propaganda is that people spreading such messages are the "Haves" of the country and are utterly irresponsible in the conduct of their duties towards this country, and I am sure, not shockingly, are exactly the ones who would be more than willing to take the next flight out of the country to the Europe or still better, the USA. At least, Sonia Gandhi left her home-country and has made our country her home for last 20 years! So, if you wanna repudiate her loyalty to this country, please get your own credentials in place first.

3) Since I have come out rather strongly about my support to Congress, a warning piece is in order. So, here it goes: I recently watched a Hindi classic Sutradhar where the story revolves around a young rebel who uproots years of tyranny by a village landlord-cum-dictator by promising better future, only to become more like his bête noire in the end!

I just hope that doesn't happen with Congress!